A proposal funded by the National Science Foundation Division of International Programs.

With the signing of Peace Accords ending Latin America's longest and bloodiest civil war Guatemala is reaching a period in its history in which a new and inclusive political community could finally emerge. Such a moment of potential societal normalization and democratization is an opportune time to consider how the newly inclusive and multiethnic national community should respond to changing forces of economic, ideological and geopolitical globalization. The end of the Cold War, the emergence of a "new world order," powerful global market forces, changing policies in the developed countries, the emergence of stronger multilateral agencies at the world level, and the current hegemony of neo-classical policy prescriptions emanating from powerful global agencies such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- all these factors pose significant challenges as well as possible opportunities for Guatemalan democratization and development.

Guatemala is the largest country in Central America and the last to negotiate an end to civil war. At the same time, in many ways Guatemala is representative of problems that exist in many other parts of the Third World. Poverty and discord among ethnically different populations are problems that exist in many developing countries. Guatemala is not among the world's poorest countries. Based on GNP per capita it falls within the category that the World Bank terms "low to middle income countries." But among countries in this category Guatemala is one of those that have the highest disparity between the rich and poor. Despite valuable national resources there is unusually high un- and underemployment in Guatemala. The tax rate relative to GNP is very low.

The peace process has created an important moment in Guatemalan history. Formerly excluded groups have been invited to participate in legal and institutional processes for formulating policies of development and democratization. The prospect of a new multiethnic nation that recognizes the cultural, political and economic rights of its poorest and least powerful citizens is a possibility for the first time in decades.

Yet these processes of democratization are occurring in a larger context in which many challenges might slow or reverse democratization. How can the movement toward democratization proactively responding to these larger regional and global forces? The consideration of larger contextual factors and the formal comparison of social changes in developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America are important for understanding particular countries such as Guatemala, as well as for comprehending the global system as a whole.

Each country in the modern world has long been affected by its location within a larger world economy and a polity of competing and allying national states. Guatemala is no exception in this regard. This observation need not deny the existence of important structures and processes at the local, regional and national levels that also affect national development and the place of each country in the larger system. Indeed the whole larger system is importantly composed by local processes as well as international and global-level features. Guatemalan economic, political and cultural change has long been importantly affected by the actions of powerful states and firms in the developed countries, especially the United States. The actions of U.S.-based firms and political-military interventions at important historical conjunctures have had major impacts on Guatemalan society as well as on other Central American countries, and these latter have also affected Guatemalan development.

The situation of a developing country emerging from a long period of strife suggests comparisons with specific other countries - El Salvador and Nicaragua, but also South Africa and the countries of the Middle East. These cases of struggle and partial reconciliation need to be compared to one another and placed in the historical context of decolonization and national liberation movements.

Democratization and development policies in Guatemala cannot be adequately understood without considering the world-wide waves of democratization (Markoff 1996) as well as important changes in the world economy. The rise of East Asian economies and their recent troubles raises the question of whether or not models of development that have worked there might also be appropriate for Guatemala, as well as the possibilities for eventual Guatemalan involvement in Pacific Rim linkages.

The demise of the Soviet Union and the emergence of global wave of economic restructuring have produced a hegemonic consensus regarding the necessities of producing for the global market and courting foreign investment. This ideological perspective has been reinforced by the policies of powerful multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. But economic and ideological globalization have also been accompanied by a long-term trend toward greater international and transnational political organization and integration and the emergence of global governance (Murphy 1994). The United Nations has played an important role in the Guatemalan peace process. International and transnational organizations of indigenous peoples, labor unions, women's movements, movements for protection of the environment, etc. have begun to play important roles in the politics of every country. These movements are part of a process of political and social globalization that is emerging in tandem with, and in response to, economic and ideological globalization.

A global society has been arising over the last two hundred years. Globalization is now understood as a long-term process in which networks of interaction of all kinds have expanded spatially and intensified. International trade networks have long existed, but they have grown in extent and intensity. The internationalization of capital began with the Great Chartered Companies of the seventeenth century and has expanded under the aegis of the contemporary multinational corporations that organize production and marketing on a global scale. Though the world polity continues to be multicentric, with the several competing and allying independent states in the core, their has been a trend toward greater international political integration over the last two hundred years. This trend is indicated by emergence of the Concert of Europe, the establishment and growth of growing numbers of specialized international organizations, the League of Nations, the United Nations and other powerful global entities such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. While world society is yet unevenly formed and only weakly constituted in many respects, it presents both threats and opportunities for advancing democratization and economic development in less developed countries such as Guatemala. At issue is both the future nature of Guatemalan society and of the emerging world society. Development and democratization need to be conceptualized and realized both nationally and globally.

The problem of Guatemalan development in context thus requires that we comprehend the moment in long-term perspective and in widely geographical circumstance. And policy prescriptions also need to be based on an understanding of the whole institutional and structural terrain of power and opportunity. The possibilities for Guatemala are not only part of, but can play an important role in, shaping the future of the larger world society. How the relationship between the developed and the developing countries is worked out in the next decades will be a major determinant of the nature of the twenty-first century world-system. Guatemala is a nodal point for understanding these connections.

For example, ethnic conflict has long afflicted societies in both the periphery and the core. Indigenous peoples all over the world are demanding cultural, political and economic recognition and justice. Guatemala may be on the brink of making a fundamental contribution to the resolution of a deep and long-standing ethnic conflict. The accord on Identity and Rights of Indigenous Peoples, one of the peace accords, is a conceptual breakthrough to be studied and emulated in many other countries that are experiencing ethnic strife.

The Seminar

We plan to hold a two and one-half day seminar at the University del Valle in Guatemala City. The seminar will be conducted in Spanish. At this seminar participants will present short summaries of original papers that will already have been read by all the other participants. Time will be devoted to comments on each paper by two assigned discussants and general discussion by all those in attendance. The time allotted for each paper will be one hour. This will include a short overview by the author, ten minute comments by each of two discussants, and thirty minutes of discussion by the whole group. The assigned discussants will be asked to prepare written versions of their critiques of the paper they are discussing. Over the two and one-half day period twelve papers will be considered in this fashion. We will invite twenty-four participants to the seminar, twelve from Guatemala and twelve from the United States. Of the twelve from each country, four will be social science students (graduate or undergraduate) and eight will be social scientists and/or policy analysts.

After the conference the papers will be revised by their authors taking into account the discussions and the written comments of discussants. These revised papers will be made available on the Internet in the Working Papers subdirectory of LADARK, the Latin American Development electronic archive (http://www.jhu.edu/~soc/ladark.html). The papers will be individually considered for publication in the Journal of World-Systems Research in a special thematic section on Guatemalan development and democracy. They will each be sent out for review by anonymous referees in connection with their consideration for publication in JWSR and some will be revised yet again. We will also approach publishers regarding the possibility of publishing the integrated collection of articles in book form. In addition to the Spanish-language version, we will produce an English-language version of the book.

In addition to the promotion of policy-relevant scientific collaboration between scholars and policy experts from Guatemala and the United States, the proposed seminar will expose graduate and undergraduate students from both countries to the methods and practices of applied social science. It will also help to move forward the development of collaborative ties between the Social Science programs at the Universidad del Valle with the Program in Comparative and International Development in the Sociology Department of Johns Hopkins University. The publication of the products of the seminar will make the most recent thinking and research results available to all interested parties.

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